Support Lags to Lift California’s Ban on Affirmative Action
- Proposition 16 ‘looks virtually certain to fail’
- Measure backed by a third of those surveyed
By Tiffany Stecker | October 15, 2020 02:03PM ET | Bloomberg Government
An effort to end California’s prohibition on affirmative action had a lot going for it this year—a growing awareness of racial inequality, more voters of color, and a multimillion dollar campaign war chest.
But the measure (Proposition 16) seeking to reverse a 24-year ban on giving racial- and gender-based advantages in hiring, for contracts, and in college enrollment, is in trouble. Two recent statewide polls show support from about one-third of likely voters surveyed.
“This proposition looks virtually certain to fail,” said Thad Kousser, a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego. “That’s really going to be disappointing to many who saw this as the right time to move a long-standing goal of the social justice movement.”
Supporters are banking on an advertising blitz and a wave of enthusiastic Joe Biden–Kamala Harris voters to carry it to the finish line in the Nov. 3 election.
State Not Alone
California is among a handful of states that restricts using gender and race criteria. Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Michigan, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, and Washington have similar bans.
The initiative was added to the ballot after the state Legislature voted to repeal Proposition 209, which in 1996 amended the state Constitution to prohibit universities and public institutions from considering applicants based on race, ethnicity, or sex.
In a mid-September survey of over 7,000 likely voters in California, the Institute for Government Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, found only one-third of likely voters said they would vote yes, and 41% said they would vote no. More than a quarter, 26%, of likely voters were undecided.
Another poll of over 1,700 Californians by the Public Policy Institute of California found a similar proportion of likely voters in support: 31%. Nearly half, 47%, said they would vote no, and 22% said they didn’t know how they would vote.
The findings are in line with internal polls done by the campaign, according to Yes on 16 campaign co-chair Eva Paterson. She said she thinks poll participants did not fully understand the measure’s effects, and is counting on a surge of newly registered voters to boost support.
“Once people hear what Proposition 16 is about, they quickly come to our side,” she said at a debate last week hosted by the Sacramento Press Club.
The electorate is more racially and ethnically diverse than it was 20 years ago, according to data collected from the University of Southern California’s Center for Inclusive Democracy.
In 1996, 85.2% of voters were White, a share that dropped to 55.6% in the last presidential election in 2016. Two decades ago, only 11.7% of voters were Latino, a number that almost doubled by 2016, to 23.2%. Asian Americans made up 12.9% of the electorate in 2016; there was no data for 1996,but in 1998, the total was 6.1%. The percentage of Black voters declined from 7% in 1996 to 5.9% in 2016.
Public Contracts
Since affirmative action ended, enrollment at the University of California campuses has increased for Asian American and Latino students. In 1990, 25% of enrolled undergraduate students identified as Asian, 12% as Latino or Hispanic, and 5% as Black.
In 2019, nearly half of University of California undergraduates were Asian, and more than a quarter were Latino. The percentage of Black students remained at 5%.
In public contracts, the racial and gender divides are deeper, the initiative’s supporters say.
A 2016 study of state-funded California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) contracts found that Black-owned businesses received only 31% of the available contract dollars that the study’s researchers expected the firms to receive. Hispanic American-owned business received 73% of available dollars, Asian and Pacific Islander-owned businesses received 72%; and Native American-owned businesses 61%. Businesses owned by White women received 65% of available contract dollars
.
“If you look at the high-dollar contracts that come out of public works and Caltrans, Black businesses are not doing very well there at all,” said Tara Lynn Gray, CEO of the Fresno Metro Black Chamber of Commerce.
The California Chamber of Commerce endorsed Proposition 16, citing a “need to improve diversity and opportunity in California’s public workforce and educational institutions.” The California Business Roundtable Board of Directors also unanimously endorsed the measure for its potential to help women- and minority-owned small businesses gain access to capital.
Television Ads
Two new television ads over the past two weeks are part of a $6 million media buy this month to draw more support for the measure, according to the political ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics.
One ad includes footage of the 2017 Charlottesville, Va., right-wing protesters carrying tiki torches and links them to Proposition 16’s opponents.
The second ad, a Spanish-language spot, features anti-immigration protesters at the southern border and former California Gov. Pete Wilson (R), a supporter of Proposition 209who has endorsed President Donald Trump for re-election.
Gail Heriot, a University of San Diego School of Law professor and co-chair of the No on Proposition 16 campaign, pushed back on the depiction of opponents.
“That is so comically false,” she said at the Sacramento Press Club debate. Heriot said she thinks that striking down Proposition 209 would lead to fewer women enrolled at universities and hired in public jobs. Women currently outnumber men at universities because they generally get better grades in high school, she said, and she’s concerned affirmative action programs could be a disadvantage for them.
Small-Dollar Donations
Supporters of the measure have amassed more than $14 million, and some of the more than 500 contributions came from deep-pocketed donors like former MicrosoftCEO Steve Ballmer and his wife, Connie Ballmer, San Francisco Bay Area philanthropist Quinn Delaney, and Netflix Inc. CEO Reed Hastings’ wife Patricia Quillin. Delaney alone has donated $5.5 million to the campaign.
On the No side, there have been more than 3,100 individual contributions, all told, with the average amount just under $300. And while several Asian organizations have backed Proposition 16,many California Asian Americans have long opposed reversing Proposition 209.
Helen Huang, a volunteer for the No campaign who came to the United States from China with her husband in 1996, said the idea of affirmative action runs counter to the beliefs of many Asian immigrants in the state.
“To me, [the solution] is to give the right education, give them the job skills,” she said. “We didn’t get any extra help.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Tiffany Stecker in Sacramento, Calif. at tstecker@bgov.com
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tina May at tmay@bloomberglaw.com